Overall setup: Neutral → Bearish for tech; broader market more resilient. Nasdaq-100 futures are down about 0.7%, while S&P 500 and Dow futures are roughly flat. The pressure is concentrated in semiconductors and software after earnings, rather than a broad risk-off move.
QQQ / Nasdaq: QQQ is trading around $717 premarket, down from roughly $724 at Wednesday’s close. My key levels for the open are support $715, then $710–712; resistance $720, then the important $724–725 prior-close area. A reclaim of $720 would materially improve the opening picture; inability to regain it keeps tech vulnerable.
SPY / S&P 500: SPY is around $770 premarket. Watch approximately $765–766 as first meaningful support, then $761–762. Resistance sits around $772, followed by $775–777. SPY is holding up substantially better than QQQ, which reinforces the current rotation away from high-beta technology.
Dow: The Dow remains the strongest of the three major averages after another gain Wednesday. That relative strength is important: if the Dow stays green while Nasdaq remains weak, this is more likely sector rotation than a full-market breakdown.
Major premarket movers: Western Digital is down roughly 15–16%, SanDisk about 10%, AppLovin roughly 18%, and Datadog about 22%, putting substantial pressure on chip/software sentiment. AMD, Micron, Intel and Marvell are also softer. On the positive side, Moderna gained roughly 4% following FDA approval of its flu vaccine for adults over 50.
Catalysts: Q2 U.S. productivity came in at +1.4%, above expectations around +0.7%, a relatively constructive inflation/productivity signal. Weekly jobless claims are also in focus, but the bigger macro event is Friday’s July employment report, so positioning may remain cautious today. Oil and U.S.–Iran/Oman negotiations around the Strait of Hormuz remain another important macro variable.
Opening playbook: Bullish if QQQ reclaims $720 and SPY holds/reclaims $772, ideally followed by a break above their first 5-minute candle highs. Neutral if QQQ stays between roughly $715–720 and SPY holds $765–772. Bearish if QQQ loses $715 and SPY breaks $765 with volume; that would suggest the technology weakness is spreading into the broader market.
My opening bias: Neutral/Bearish. I would be cautious chasing longs immediately at 9:30. The most important confirmation will be whether QQQ can reclaim $720 while SPY continues holding around $765–770. If that happens, today’s opening weakness could become a buyable dip; if QQQ rejects $720, tech likely remains the weak link.
